MODULE 2: Disaster Risk Assessment & Analysis

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Lesson Objectives

By the end of this lesson, learners will be able to:

• Explain what Community Risk Assessment (CRA) is and why it is important

• Understand the key steps involved in conducting a CRA

• Identify hazards, vulnerabilities, and capacities within a community

• Appreciate the role of community participation in risk assessment

• Apply CRA concepts to a real community setting

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Lesson Introduction

Disasters affect communities differently. Some communities recover quickly, while others suffer long-term losses. The reason for this difference is risk, and risk looks different in every community. This is why Community Risk Assessment (CRA) is a critical tool in Disaster Risk Management.

Community Risk Assessment is a participatory process that helps communities identify the disasters they face, understand who and what is most at risk, and recognize the strengths they already have. CRA moves disaster management away from guesswork and assumptions and toward evidence-based and community-driven action.

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What Is Community Risk Assessment (CRA)?

Community Risk Assessment is a structured process where community members and facilitators work together to identify:

• Hazards that threaten the community

• Vulnerabilities that increase harm

• Capacities that reduce risk

CRA focuses on local knowledge. People who live in a community understand its risks better than outsiders. They know where floods occur, who suffers most, and what coping strategies already exist.

👉 CRA is not done for the community; it is done with the community.

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Why Community Risk Assessment Is Important

CRA is important because it:

• Identifies real risks, not assumed risks

• Helps prioritize actions based on evidence

• Builds community ownership and trust

• Improves preparedness and prevention

• Supports better project and development planning

Without CRA, disaster plans often fail because they ignore local realities.

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Key Steps in Community Risk Assessment

Although CRA methods may vary, the core steps remain the same.

1. Community Engagement and Preparation

The process begins by:

• Identifying community leaders and groups

• Explaining the purpose of the assessment

• Building trust and encouraging participation

Inclusion is important. Women, youth, elderly people, and people with disabilities must be involved.

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2. Hazard Identification

The community identifies hazards that affect them, such as:

• Floods

• Droughts

• Fires

• Disease outbreaks

• Strong winds or storms

Communities often use hazard mapping, where they draw a simple map showing risky areas like flood zones or landslide-prone slopes.

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3. Vulnerability Assessment

Next, the community discusses who is most at risk and why. Vulnerability may be linked to:

• Poverty

• Weak housing

• Poor health

• Location

• Livelihood type

Example:
Children, elderly people, and informal traders may be more vulnerable during floods.

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4. Capacity Assessment

Capacity assessment identifies strengths that reduce risk, such as:

• Local skills and knowledge

• Community groups and volunteers

• Early warning practices

• Safe buildings

• Local leadership

This step is important because CRA is not only about problems — it is also about solutions.

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5. Risk Analysis and Prioritization

Finally, the community ranks risks based on:

• Likelihood of occurrence

• Severity of impact

This helps decide which risks need immediate attention and which can be managed over time.

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Real-Life Example

A riverside community conducts a CRA:

• Hazard: Seasonal flooding

• Vulnerability: Houses built close to the river, poverty

• Capacity: Strong community leadership, boats for evacuation

Result:
The community prioritizes flood early warnings and relocation of the most vulnerable households.

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Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Ignoring community voices

• Focusing only on hazards, not vulnerability

• Treating CRA as a one-time activity

• Excluding vulnerable groups

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Practical Exercise

1. Choose a real community you know

2. List three hazards affecting it

3. Identify two vulnerable groups

4. List two existing capacities

5. Decide which risk should be addressed first

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Key Takeaways

• CRA is participatory and community-driven

• It identifies hazards, vulnerabilities, and capacities

• It supports effective disaster planning

• Local knowledge is essential

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Lesson Conclusion

Community Risk Assessment is the foundation of effective Disaster Risk Management. It empowers communities to understand their own risks and take informed action before disasters strike. When CRA is done well, it transforms communities from passive victims into active risk managers. By listening to community voices and using simple assessment tools, disaster risk can be reduced, lives can be protected, and development can become safer and more sustainable.

Lesson Objectives

By the end of this lesson, learners will be able to:

• Clearly explain what hazard identification and hazard profiling mean

• Identify different types of hazards affecting a community or area

• Analyze the characteristics of hazards, including frequency and impact

• Use simple tools to profile hazards in real-life settings

• Apply hazard profiling results to disaster planning and risk reduction

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Lesson Introduction

Before disasters can be reduced, hazards must first be clearly identified and understood. Many disaster plans fail because they are based on assumptions rather than real hazard information. Hazard identification and profiling helps communities and organizations move from guessing to informed decision-making.

A hazard may exist for many years without causing serious harm. However, when its characteristics are not understood, it can suddenly turn into a devastating disaster. This lesson focuses on how to systematically identify hazards and describe their behavior so that effective prevention and preparedness actions can be taken.

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What Is Hazard Identification?

Hazard identification is the process of recognizing and listing all potential hazards that can affect a specific area, community, or system.

Hazards may include:

• Natural hazards (floods, droughts, storms, earthquakes)

• Human-induced hazards (fires, industrial accidents, building collapse)

• Biological hazards (disease outbreaks, food contamination)

Hazard identification answers a simple but important question:

“What can go wrong here?”

This process should involve:

• Community members

• Local leaders

• Technical staff where available

Local knowledge is critical because people who live in the area understand past events and hidden risks.

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What Is Hazard Profiling?

Hazard profiling goes deeper than identification. It involves analyzing each hazard to understand how it behaves and how dangerous it is.

A hazard profile describes:

• Type of hazard (flood, fire, disease, etc.)

• Frequency (how often it occurs)

• Intensity or severity (how strong or damaging it is)

• Duration (how long it lasts)

• Speed of onset (sudden or slow)

• Area affected

• Seasonality (when it usually occurs)

Hazard profiling answers the question:

“How does this hazard behave, and how dangerous is it?”

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Why Hazard Profiling Is Important

Hazard profiling helps to:

• Prioritize the most dangerous hazards

• Design appropriate early warning systems

• Improve preparedness and evacuation planning

• Support land-use and development planning

• Reduce loss of life and property

For example, slow-onset hazards like drought require long-term planning, while fast-onset hazards like floods require rapid warning and response systems.

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Steps in Hazard Identification and Profiling

Step 1: List All Hazards

Using community discussions and past records, list all hazards that have occurred or could occur in the area.

Step 2: Collect Information

Gather information from:

• Community memories

• Local authorities

• Health centers

• Meteorological data (if available)

Step 3: Describe Hazard Characteristics

For each hazard, document:

• How often it occurs

• How severe it is

• Who or what it affects most

A simple table can be used to record this information.

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Practical Community Example

A community identifies flooding as a major hazard.

Hazard profile:

• Type: Flood

• Frequency: Every rainy season

• Intensity: Moderate to severe

• Duration: 2–5 days

• Speed of onset: Rapid

• Area affected: Low-lying households

• Seasonality: December–March

This profile helps the community plan evacuation routes and early warning systems.

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Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Ignoring small but frequent hazards

• Focusing only on rare major disasters

• Using only external data and ignoring local knowledge

• Failing to update hazard profiles regularly

Hazard profiles should be reviewed and updated as conditions change.

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Practical Exercise

1. Choose one community or institution you know

2. List three major hazards affecting it

3. Profile one hazard using the following:

   • Frequency

   • Severity

   • Duration

   • Seasonality

4. Identify one action that could reduce risk

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Key Takeaways

• Hazard identification lists potential dangers

• Hazard profiling explains how hazards behave

• Local knowledge is essential

• Profiling supports effective disaster planning

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Lesson Conclusion

Hazard identification and profiling form the technical backbone of Disaster Risk Management. Without understanding hazards, disaster planning becomes weak and ineffective. By carefully identifying hazards and analyzing their characteristics, communities and organizations can anticipate danger, prepare appropriately, and reduce losses. Hazard profiling transforms disasters from sudden surprises into manageable risks, making it a critical step toward resilience and sustainable development.

Lesson Objectives

By the end of this lesson, learners will be able to:

• Explain what vulnerability means in Disaster Risk Management

• Identify different types of vulnerability within a community

• Understand why some people suffer more during disasters than others

• Conduct a basic vulnerability assessment using practical tools

• Use vulnerability information to improve disaster planning and protection

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Lesson Introduction

When disasters strike, they do not affect everyone in the same way. Some people lose their homes, livelihoods, or even their lives, while others recover quickly. This difference is explained by vulnerability. Vulnerability assessment helps us answer one critical question:
Who is most at risk, and why?

Understanding vulnerability is essential because disasters are not only about hazards like floods or droughts. They are about people’s living conditions, choices, and opportunities. This lesson focuses on identifying vulnerable groups and understanding the factors that increase their risk.

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What Is Vulnerability?

Vulnerability refers to the conditions that make individuals, households, or communities more likely to suffer harm when a hazard occurs.

Vulnerability is influenced by factors such as:

• Poverty and lack of income

• Weak or unsafe housing

• Poor health and disability

• Limited access to information

• Social exclusion or discrimination

• Dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods

Important point:
👉 Vulnerability is not weakness. It is often created by social, economic, and political conditions beyond people’s control.

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Types of Vulnerability

Vulnerability has several dimensions. Understanding these helps identify who is most at risk.

1. Physical Vulnerability

This relates to:

• Location of homes (floodplains, slopes)

• Quality of buildings

• Access to safe infrastructure

Example:
Houses built with mud walls near a river are more physically vulnerable to floods.

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2. Social Vulnerability

This relates to:

• Age (children, elderly)

• Gender

• Disability

• Education levels

Example:
Elderly people may struggle to evacuate quickly during floods.

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3. Economic Vulnerability

This relates to:

• Income levels

• Employment type

• Savings and assets

Example:
Daily wage earners lose income immediately after disasters and may struggle to recover.

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4. Environmental Vulnerability

This relates to:

• Degraded land

• Deforestation

• Poor drainage

Environmental damage increases exposure to hazards.

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Why Vulnerability Assessment Is Important

Vulnerability assessment helps to:

• Protect the most at-risk groups

• Prioritize limited resources

• Design inclusive disaster plans

• Reduce long-term poverty and suffering

Without vulnerability assessment, disaster response often benefits stronger groups first, leaving the most vulnerable behind.

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Steps in Conducting a Vulnerability Assessment

Step 1: Identify Vulnerable Groups

Through community discussions, identify groups such as:

• Children

• Elderly people

• People with disabilities

• Pregnant women

• Female-headed households

• Informal settlers

Step 2: Identify Vulnerability Factors

Ask:

• Where do they live?

• What livelihoods do they depend on?

• What barriers limit their safety or recovery?

Step 3: Analyze Risk Exposure

Link vulnerability to hazards:

• Who is affected by floods most?

• Who struggles during droughts?

This step connects vulnerability directly to hazard impacts.

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Real-Life Community Example

In a flood-prone settlement:

• Children are at risk of drowning

• Elderly people cannot evacuate quickly

• Informal traders lose goods and income

Vulnerability assessment helps planners:

• Design safe evacuation plans

• Target early warnings

• Provide appropriate shelters

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Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Treating all community members the same

• Ignoring gender and disability issues

• Relying only on statistics without community input

• Labeling people instead of understanding conditions

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Practical Exercise

1. Choose a community you know

2. List three vulnerable groups

3. Identify two reasons each group is vulnerable

4. Suggest one action to reduce their vulnerability

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Key Takeaways

• Vulnerability explains unequal disaster impacts

• It is shaped by social, economic, and physical factors

• Vulnerability assessment guides fair and effective planning

• Protecting the vulnerable strengthens overall resilience

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Lesson Conclusion

Vulnerability assessment is at the heart of people-centered Disaster Risk Management. It shifts attention from hazards alone to the real lives and conditions of people at risk. By understanding who is most vulnerable and why, disaster planners can design inclusive, effective, and ethical interventions. Reducing vulnerability not only saves lives during disasters but also promotes dignity, equality, and sustainable development. Strong disaster risk management begins by protecting those who need it most.

Lesson Objectives

 the end of this lesson, learners will be able to:

• Explain what capacity means in Disaster Risk Management

• Identify different types of capacities within a community or institution

• Understand why capacity is as important as vulnerability

• Conduct a simple but effective capacity assessment

• Use capacity information to reduce disaster risk and strengthen resilience

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Lesson Introduction

In Disaster Risk Management, much attention is often given to hazards and vulnerabilities. While these are important, focusing only on problems creates a negative picture. Communities are not just vulnerable — they also have strengths, skills, and resources. These strengths are known as capacities.

Capacity assessment helps answer a powerful question:
What resources already exist that can reduce disaster risk and support recovery?

Understanding capacity shifts disaster management from dependency to empowerment. It helps communities recognize that they are not helpless victims but active actors in managing risk.

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What Is Capacity?

Capacity refers to the abilities, skills, resources, knowledge, and systems that people, communities, or institutions can use to anticipate, cope with, respond to, and recover from disasters.

Capacity exists at different levels:

• Individual level

• Community level

• Institutional level

Important point:
👉 Capacity does not mean having everything needed. It means using what is available effectively.

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Types of Capacity

Understanding different types of capacity helps conduct a complete assessment.

1. Human Capacity

This includes:

• Skills and knowledge

• Experience with past disasters

• Trained volunteers

• Health workers, teachers, artisans

Example:
A community with trained first aid volunteers has strong human capacity.

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2. Social Capacity

This includes:

• Community groups and networks

• Traditional leadership

• Trust and cooperation among members

• Women’s groups, youth clubs, savings groups

Strong social relationships help communities respond quickly and support one another during emergencies.

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3. Physical Capacity

This includes:

• Safe buildings and shelters

• Roads and bridges

• Water points and sanitation facilities

• Boats, vehicles, tools

Example:
A school building that can be used as an evacuation shelter is an important physical capacity.

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4. Economic Capacity

This includes:

• Savings

• Livelihood diversity

• Access to credit or insurance

• Local businesses

Economic capacity determines how fast households can recover after a disaster.

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5. Institutional Capacity

This includes:

• Local disaster committees

• Health centers and schools

• Early warning systems

• Local government support

Strong institutions improve coordination and decision-making during crises.

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Why Capacity Assessment Is Important

Capacity assessment helps to:

• Build on existing strengths

• Reduce dependency on external aid

• Improve disaster preparedness and response

• Design realistic and sustainable plans

• Promote dignity and local ownership

Without capacity assessment, disaster programs often ignore local solutions and fail to last.

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Steps in Conducting a Capacity Assessment

Step 1: Identify Existing Resources

Through community discussions, list:

• Skills

• Equipment

• Institutions

• Local practices

Step 2: Analyze How Capacities Are Used

Ask:

• Are these resources accessible during disasters?

• Who controls them?

• Are they reliable?

Step 3: Identify Capacity Gaps

Compare existing capacities with risks to see what is missing and needs strengthening.

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Real-Life Community Example

In a flood-prone area:

• Human capacity: trained community volunteers

• Social capacity: strong village committee

• Physical capacity: boats and elevated buildings

• Institutional capacity: early warning messages

Result:
Flood impacts are reduced, and evacuation is faster and safer.

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Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Ignoring informal or traditional capacities

• Focusing only on external support

• Assuming poor communities have no capacity

• Not updating capacity assessments

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Practical Exercise

1. Choose a community or institution you know

2. List three existing capacities

3. Identify one capacity gap

4. Suggest one action to strengthen capacity

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Key Takeaways

• Capacity reduces disaster risk

• Communities have valuable strengths

• Capacity assessment promotes resilience

• Using local resources improves sustainability

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Lesson Conclusion

Capacity assessment is a powerful tool that changes how disaster risk is understood and managed. It highlights what communities already have, not only what they lack. By identifying and strengthening existing capacities, Disaster Risk Management becomes more effective, inclusive, and sustainable. When capacity is recognized and supported, communities move from vulnerability toward resilience, confidence, and self-reliance.

Lesson Objectives

By the end of this lesson, learners will be able to:

• Explain what risk ranking and prioritization mean in Disaster Risk Management

• Analyze hazards based on their likelihood and potential impact

• Use practical methods to rank risks in communities or organizations

• Identify which risks require immediate attention and resources

• Apply risk prioritization to improve planning, preparedness, and resilience

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Lesson Introduction

Disaster Risk Management involves many hazards, vulnerabilities, and capacities. Communities often face multiple risks at the same time — floods, droughts, fires, disease outbreaks, or landslides. Not all risks can be addressed immediately due to limited resources. This is where risk ranking and prioritization becomes critical.

Risk ranking allows communities, governments, and organizations to focus on the most serious risks first. It ensures resources are used wisely, interventions are targeted, and actions are both effective and sustainable.

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What Is Risk Ranking and Prioritization?

Risk ranking is the process of evaluating hazards and risks based on their likelihood (how often they occur) and their potential impact (how much harm they can cause).

Risk prioritization uses this ranking to decide which risks need immediate attention and which can be managed over time.

Simply put:

“Not all risks are equal. Some need urgent action; others can wait.”

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Why Risk Ranking Matters

• Resources are limited, especially in developing countries

• Some hazards cause more damage or affect more people

• Prioritization prevents wasted efforts on minor risks

• It ensures high-risk groups are protected first

Example:
A community may face both minor windstorms and seasonal flooding. Windstorms may happen often but cause little damage, while floods happen less often but destroy homes and livelihoods. By ranking risks, the community focuses first on flood preparedness, then addresses windstorm mitigation.

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Steps in Risk Ranking and Prioritization

Step 1: List All Identified Risks

Use results from hazard identification, vulnerability assessment, and capacity assessment. Include all potential hazards and threats.

Step 2: Assess Likelihood

Determine how likely each risk is to occur:

• Rare (once in 10+ years)

• Occasional (every 2–10 years)

• Frequent (annually or more)

Step 3: Assess Impact

Determine how severe the consequences could be:

• Low (minor property damage, no deaths)

• Medium (property damage, some injuries)

• High (major destruction, loss of life)

Step 4: Rank Risks

Combine likelihood and impact using a simple table or matrix:

Likelihood ↓ / Impact →	Low	Medium	High
Rare	Low	Low	Medium
Occasional	Low	Medium	High
Frequent	Medium	High	High

This helps visually identify the highest priority risks.

Step 5: Prioritize Actions

Focus resources on high likelihood & high impact hazards first. Medium risks come next, while low risks may be monitored.

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Practical Community Example

A riverside community identifies hazards:

• Floods: occasional, high impact → high priority

• Disease outbreak: occasional, medium impact → medium priority

• Windstorms: frequent, low impact → low priority

Result:
Flood early warnings, evacuation plans, and raised houses are prioritized. Disease awareness campaigns follow. Windstorm measures are monitored but do not consume major resources.

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Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Ignoring community input in ranking

• Using only past experiences without considering new hazards

• Overlooking vulnerable groups when assessing impact

• Treating all risks as equally urgent

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Practical Exercise

1. Take a real community or organization you know

2. List three major hazards

3. Assess their likelihood and impact

4. Rank them from highest to lowest priority

5. Suggest one immediate action for the top risk

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Key Takeaways

• Risk ranking helps focus on hazards that matter most

• Likelihood and impact determine priority

• Resources must be directed toward high-priority risks

• Involving the community improves accuracy and ownership

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Lesson Conclusion

Risk ranking and prioritization turn raw disaster information into actionable plans. By focusing on the most dangerous and likely hazards first, communities and organizations save lives, protect livelihoods, and use resources efficiently. This process transforms Disaster Risk Management from reactive responses into strategic, proactive, and life-saving action. When risks are correctly ranked and prioritized, disasters become manageable, not overwhelming.